Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.127335 0.143015 0.159933 0.179552 0.201695 0.225926 0.254479
2025-12-07 0.095940 0.115189 0.137428 0.165062 0.198539 0.237857 0.287655
2025-12-14 0.075902 0.096770 0.122415 0.156340 0.200182 0.255122 0.329500
2025-12-21 0.061336 0.082664 0.110420 0.149345 0.202788 0.273971 0.376615
2025-12-28 0.052474 0.074509 0.104772 0.149625 0.214857 0.306954 0.448055
2026-01-04 0.044206 0.065881 0.097182 0.146032 0.221021 0.332869 0.514363
2026-01-11 0.038236 0.059643 0.092054 0.145175 0.231023 0.365968 0.597365
2026-01-18 0.033789 0.055025 0.088649 0.146383 0.244380 0.406363 0.699281
2026-01-25 0.028592 0.048432 0.081162 0.139822 0.244006 0.424432 0.767252
2026-02-01 0.024144 0.042428 0.073771 0.132246 0.240627 0.436764 0.827344
2026-02-08 0.020944 0.038117 0.068653 0.127860 0.242193 0.458076 0.907980
2026-02-15 0.018220 0.034272 0.063818 0.123232 0.242522 0.477059 0.987568
2026-02-22 0.016612 0.032344 0.062367 0.125098 0.256323 0.525593 1.139392
2026-03-01 0.014478 0.029098 0.057946 0.120395 0.256102 0.545870 1.235515
2026-03-08 0.012887 0.026713 0.054896 0.118059 0.260538 0.576913 1.362662
2026-03-15 0.011517 0.024592 0.052086 0.115798 0.264794 0.608422 1.497950
2026-03-22 0.010723 0.023583 0.051482 0.118331 0.280430 0.668834 1.717292
2026-03-29 0.009743 0.022024 0.049456 0.117273 0.287410 0.709991 1.896751
2026-04-05 0.008996 0.020893 0.048234 0.117941 0.298785 0.764220 2.123697
2026-04-12 0.008415 0.020065 0.047601 0.119964 0.314010 0.831289 2.402240
2026-04-19 0.007508 0.018332 0.044565 0.115401 0.311097 0.849590 2.543709
2026-04-26 0.006650 0.016604 0.041306 0.109756 0.304288 0.856011 2.651322
2026-05-03 0.006014 0.015352 0.039083 0.106558 0.303829 0.880555 2.822036